Reconceptualizing Modal Shift Dynamics: A Critical Re-evaluation of Freight Transportation Modal Split Models

Abstract

The freight transportation sector faces increasing pressure to optimize modal shifts amidst evolving environmental regulations and economic constraints. This study critically assesses traditional modal split models, employing advanced statistical techniques and a dataset spanning multiple countries to evaluate their predictive capabilities. Key findings reveal significant discrepancies between established models and actual freight behavior in contemporary contexts, particularly post-pandemic. The paper proposes a refined framework that integrates socio-economic variables and sustainability metrics, offering a more effective paradigm for predicting modal shifts. By challenging entrenched assumptions, the study provides actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders aiming for enhanced logistical efficiency and environmental compliance.